UND still needs to win to get in

UND is at No. 13 in the Pairwise Rankings after the first round of the playoffs and will definitely need to win at least one game at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff in order to make the NCAA tournament for a 12th straight year.

There’s a very good chance that UND will need to win both games to get in.

If the dominoes fall right, there is the possibility of UND getting in with just one win in Minneapolis, though (whether it be the semis or in the third-place game).

You can go to College Hockey News and play around with this and look at different scenarios.

If you want to do some scoreboard watching this weekend, here’s what you need to know (based on my calculations) if UND is to get into the NCAAs with only one win in Minneapolis:

1. Union and Quinnipiac in ECAC

The ECAC tournament will be the No. 1 follow. UND really needs Union and Quinnipiac to win in their semifinal games Friday. Union plays Cornell. Quinnipiac plays Colgate. If BOTH Union and Quinnipiac win, it would help UND. If even one of them loses, it’s a tough spot.

2. Bowling Green over Mankato

If Bowling Green beats Mankato… AND Ferris goes on to win the WCHA, it would open up some more doors for UND.

3. Penn State over Michigan

If Penn State knocks off Michigan on Thursday afternoon, it would be big for UND. Michigan has already lost to Penn State twice this season. I don’t see it happening a third time.

4. Anybody but New Hampshire (or Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State)

No reason really to follow Hockey East with the exception of needing New Hampshire to lose somewhere along the way so the Wildcats don’t take up a tourney spot. UND also doesn’t want to see the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions or Spartans winning Big 10. AHA doesn’t affect UND.

If you’re bored, check out the College Hockey News device and let me know if you come up with anything else interesting.

43 thoughts on “UND still needs to win to get in

  1. I love the PairWise predictor. Played with it for a hour or so last night. I found pretty much the same as you, Schloss. Michigan and Mankato losing is huge. Especially if it’s their next game.

  2. Well I’ll generally pull for Mankato, as my brother goes there and we are no longer in the same conference. BUT not this weekend, GO SIOUX!!!

  3. The more the lower seeds continue to win, the worse it looks for the Sioux (and a lot of other deserving teams). Never been a big fan of the pairwise, but it is what it is. Lower seeds emerging everywhere as conference champs create an absolute nightmare scenario for the frozen four tourney…

    Bottom line; the Sioux have to AT LAST win the 5th of 5 meetings (up already 3-1 in the season series) against an uber-talented, red-hot Miami team. Its a tall order for ANY team, and they will have to play their absolute best to pull it off. I really dont see them making the NCAA’s unless they win the NCHC.

    Go Sioux!!

  4. dropping 5 spots killed us on Saturday. How did Michigan lose to Penn earlier this year and only drop maybe 2 spots in the pairwise? Seems weird. As well as Colgate has played, its going to be tough for Quinnipiac. All we can do is hope the card fall in our favor……and we keep winning.

  5. It really doesn’t matter if we win Friday night or Saturday after a loss from a pair wise perspective. Really 2 out of these 4 have to lose and we will be looking pretty good; cornell, Colgate, Minnesota state, and michigan vs penn state.

  6. I am not as impressed with Miami as some of you are. I think they are hot right now, and this is almost as important as how good a team has been during the regular season. I think we match up better with Miami than we do Western so I think this is the best matchup we could get. More importantly than who we play, there are two things the Sioux have to do to win (I’m talking NC here…what else is there). 1. Our goaltending has to be superior. UND has not had great GT’ing for a number of years now. I am not talking about playing well……..championship teams always have great GT’ing……..I’m talking about playing extraordinary. 2. Our D cannot back into our own goalie. We have very good defensemen, albeit they are young. We need these guys to stand players up on our own blue line. I’m not picking on a coach or an individual player, I’m just saying we have to do a better job of this if we are to win big this year. If the Sioux can get the GT’ing and the D stand up, I think we have enough talent to win big this year.

    • The “good goaltending” excuse is just that – something that’s invented because it is an obvious way to cover up a team’s other shortcomings. There’s a reason why most goaltenders stay in school for four years, still spend a year or two in the minors, and then another year or two as a backup goalie before getting a starting job in The Show. It’s the hardest position on the ice to learn to do effectively night in, night out. And at this level, with less skilled defensemen working in front of you and a fair number of opposing forwards who could step right onto second or third lines on NHL teams, goaltending is never going to be as elite as it is at the NHL level. Sure, you get goaltenders that go on hot streaks but it’s a finely-tuned craft and takes a lot of time to develop that skill.

      UND has had pretty good goalies but if they were NHL-level goaltenders, they wouldn’t be in college.

      • The other reason they stay in school, etc, before getting a starting NHL job is supply and demand which you touch on. There are only 30 starting NHL jobs. …I think one could write the same thing about any position in any sport if there was such a bottleneck getting to the starting job.

        • Indeed, and the rapid influx of European goaltenders (for which I still havent figued out “why” yet) has left a lot of great collegiate keepers wallowing in the minors….

    • Blah blah blah… defense wins championships. Duh. We get it. Every team gets it. Name one team that doesn’t need a superior goalie to win the NC?

    • I can GUARANTEE you the St Cloud State Huskies have a completely different view of Miami. I can ALSO guarantee there are a ton of D-I college hockey teams that wished they had landed Aaron Dell, Brad Eidness, Clarke Saunders, Zane Gothberg, etc etc etc….

  7. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php?update=1

    Here’s a scenario with Colgate beating Quinnipiac, but losing to Union in the ECAC Championship. UND loses to Miami, but beats DU in the third place game, and they finish 13th and qualify for the tourney.

    Granted this also has Minnesota State and Michigan losing to Bowling Green and Penn State.

    If UND loses any games, you ultimately want the favorites winning the conference tourneys.

    Eager to see Jim Dahl’s probability breakdowns this week.

  8. I get tickets for the tourney every year but I was sweating a little bit this time around. I remember the WCHA being played at Target back in the late 90’s when the X was being build and we had great times in downtown Minny. I’m gonna miss St. Paul a little but DAMN this is gonna be fun!!! Bring it on!

  9. I get how it works, but a 22 win ND team is 13th and playing for its life, and a 22 win Wisconsin team is 5th (not to mention an 18 win Michigan team @ 11) Hate it. Certainly control our own destiny from here out, but this new league thing hasn’t exactly worked out to our advantage.

  10. Question Brad…. Is there even a trophy for the Frozen Faceoff? I tried to find what it’s called, and nothing came up for a trophy (Other than the Penrose Cup).

  11. UND has really gotten itself into a pickle. Gotta root against Mankato and Michigan at all costs. Looking at their schedule, at first glance you kind of say, “We didn’t really have a bad loss in there (maybe St. Lawrence).” But when you really examine the losses, even though they may be good teams/programs, they were very bad losses.

    Non-conference BU #44 loss and tie
    Non-cobference Bemidji #45 tie
    Non-conference SLU #32 loss
    CC #51 loss
    Miami #32 loss
    Not to mention losses to UNO, Denver, and getting swept by Cloud.

  12. Does the big ten and nchc get an autobid from their conference championships? I thought they were voided for two years or something because of new conferences?

  13. If we can’t win 2 games in the conference tourney this weekend, then we have no chance of winning 4 in a row in the national tourney.

    We have to be playing great hockey this time of year.

    • While I’d like to agree, I got to say… Not so fast my friend! You might want to take a look back a mere 12 months ago when Yale lost both games in the Easy AC conference tourney (that’d be a 4th place finish) then put together an improbable 4 game win streak, that only the Big Man above can explain, ending in a national championship. I know we need a win to get in, but anything’s possible after that.

      • While I appreciate your optimism, I think Dave is right here. While they have been playing good hockey it’s not always smart hockey…. dumb penalties, etc.

        This team will be great the next two years but they are still young and dumb. They have learned that just wearing the jersey doesn’t make you a good player and a loss against a lesser team will cost you dearly in college hockey….two huge lessons in my opinion.

  14. With both the Big 10 and NCHC conference championships in the cities, I think they should schedule one more game on Sunday, an outdoor game between the two tournament champions, for a trophy made out of ice. A pairwise bracket buster game.

    Just kidding.

  15. Yeah it’s true that when you’re in the tourney anything can happen (thank you Yale) but I agree with Hooter that we have to look realistically at our team. The goal scoring is inconsistent and that’s why we win on Friday and lose on Saturday.

    So we know we can beat anybody as well as lose to anybody. The only thing different is from here on out we won’t play the same team on back to back nights.

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