The things that need to happen (updated)

After spending about a half an hour running different scenarios into College Hockey News’ Pairwise Predictor, I believe that UND’s NCAA tournament fate will basically rest in the hands of three games on Saturday.

1. UND needs to beat Western Michigan. It all starts with the 3:38 p.m. game, the only afternoon game of the day. If UND doesn’t win this game, the night games don’t matter. Because it’s a third-place game, there would be a tie declared after a five-minute overtime. A tie isn’t good enough for UND, either, so we could see the strange situation of UND pulling its goalie if there’s a tie game.

2. UMass-Lowell needs to beat New Hampshire (6 p.m.). The RiverHawks, the top-remaining seed in Hockey East, needs to win that game. If UNH wins, UND is out. Lowell hasn’t played New Hampshire since Nov. 1-2.

3. Wisconsin needs to beat Ohio State (7 p.m.). If the Buckeyes win the Big Ten, UND is trouble, but not necessarily done. There is a perfect storm listed below. The Badgers split both series with the Buckeyes this season.

THE PERFECT STORM

There’s one other perfect storm of events that allows UND to get into the NCAAs even with an Ohio State win over Wisconsin. A reader found this one for me:

UND over Western Michigan; Canisius over Robert Morris in AHA; Miami over Denver; Ferris State over MSU-Mankato.

I don’t think the results in the ECAC have an impact on UND’s tournament hopes.

If you can find a scenario to prove this wrong, let me know. The Pairwise Predictor is located here.

61 thoughts on “The things that need to happen (updated)

  1. Ha!

    Truer words never spoken ; )

    Thanks for everything Bradley. A spectacular job as always.

    Go sioux. I guess I’ll show up and cheer tomorrow. Hopefully the team decides to show up too.

  2. This gets us in at #13 w/ Ohio State beating Wisconsin. OSU winning drops Minnesota States RPI enough for us to flip it, but only if Miami wins. If Denver wins, UND’s RPI drops and MSU gets the comparison and the 13th spot.

    Atlantic Hockey

    Championship game: Canisius defeats Robert Morris

    Big Ten

    Championship game: Ohio State defeats Wisconsin

    ECAC

    Championship game: Union defeats Colgate

    Hockey East

    Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats New Hampshire

    NCHC

    Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Western Michigan
    Championship game: Miami defeats Denver

    WCHA

    Championship game: Ferris State defeats Minnesota State

    • Turns out Canisius would have to win in this scenario as well. If Robert Morris wins, it alters the RPI’s enough to give the comparison back to MSU-Mankato.

  3. How can a team with so much talent, who played so well during the second half of the season, who last beat this opponent by scoring 9 goals look so pathetic? The venue was beaming with the pride and support of a home game, yet the team rewarded their loyal with the image of either being ill prepared or terribly out coached! I do believe the effort was their but the response to the opponents onslaught was akin to the mouse saying, “who moved the cheese?”

  4. I hate 1 and done hockey. We killed them 3/4 times this year, and now “they’re the better team.” 3 game series should be a must at the home school. This is stupid.

    • I was gonna say the same thing. As a Sioux Fan who was at the game and not real happy with the team’s performance (obviously), Miami just plain and simply wanted it more! Un-inspired performance by the boys in green in front of a lot of “paid” fans. OH WELL i guess, if thats going to be their attitude, mine will be that as well

      Target Center and the bars around (HUBERTS & KINKAIDS) kinda blow btw- nobody is happy we are here and spending $ attitude everywhere

      I miss the Xcel

      I may not also not be a fan of downtown Minneapolis either and I live here

  5. Miami has been overall the better team all year on paper, last night it just so happened they showed up and played on of the best games they have played all year. UND on the other hand decided to pull a we will show up and the game is ours type night. Very frustrated fan here I know the boys are better and some bounces went Miami’s way last night but over all play of UND last night was very ugly they did have moments of good play but never more then a minute or two.

    • It should be remembered that in the last years of the CCHA, Miami was the team to beat, surpassing perennial powers Mich and Mich St. They were polled at #1 in the NCHC at the beginning of the season. That they ended up in last place was amazing. At the end of the season, when it counted, the pulled it together, beating SCSU and UND.

  6. The last 8 games UND has played it has 4 wins and 4 losses. At this time of the year you cannot play like that. Had they taken care of business they would not be in the position they are. I am a DIEHARD SIOUX FAN but the way UND is playing they don’t deserve to be in the NCAA tourney.

  7. What amazes me is all the stupid comments that the Sioux didnt show up last night. I guess in alot of peoples minds if you dont win every game, you obviously didnt show up or were lazy…. you can never lose because your team got outplayed by a talented team.

  8. It is ironic that a Minnesota loss last night could end up dealing a blow to the hopes of UND.

    I was disappointed last night but this is sport of momentum and the way Miami is playing lately it is clear they are a machine firing at the right time. I will still be cheering wildly for the (sigh) third place game today and then watching tonight with interest. It truly is a one game season – and hopefully that will also be true next weekend.

  9. We were outplayed last night. I have no doubt that UND played their heart out but when two teams are so close in takent, it comes down to the fundamentals of the game. Last night the fundamentals fell apart for us. The icing dump at the end of the 2nd was a perfect example.

  10. So no TV at all for the third place game??? Why would CBS sports buy up the rights and then not show all the games? Pretty sure the camera crew is there.

  11. Does anyone have any guesses as to what it would take (or if it’s even possible) for us to get put in the west regional instead of St. Cloud? I’d love to see us play Minnesota in St. Paul.

  12. The comment about firing Hak is out of line. Should Duke fire Krzyzewski because they lost to Mercer? The coach can’t win all your games; the players have to step up at tournament time.

    • Lack of job security is generally the big rationale for the salaries coaches make. But lets face it, UND and Gopher hockey fans are never content with anything but the banner. Despite all their contributions over the years, both Gasparini and Woog got the axe when victories became scarce and seats went empty. Hackstol is the second highest paid state employee, and patience is running out on his inability to win it all.

    • Well said. Hakstol has brought this team a long ways from where it was in November (for the umpteenth time) and is absolutely one of the top coaches in all of college hockey.

      • We shouldn’t have been in that position in November in the first place. Hak inability to get players to play well in the beginning of the season has finally come back to bite us.

    • Yeah, but every time Duke loses, they don’t cry for Coach K’s firing.

      I think Hakstol really needs to win a National Championship so we can officially tell the haters to go root for SCSU or Minnesota.

      The only thing the haters do that grinds my gears more than this is their claiming that they’re actually fans, not haters. No, they’re not fans. Fans analyze with a level head even if they lose. Fans don’t immediately go for rooting for failure when “their guy” isn’t hired (see Hak’s hiring). Fans don’t call for the coach’s dismissal without some true evidence that the coach is the issue.

      Let’s say UND loses today. This will be the first time UND will miss the NCAAs in 12 years. Uh, good luck firing a coach with that track record. This isn’t Glen Mason’s UMN football team who was just happy to make it to the Who the F Cares Bowl.

      Haks’ firing will be Christmas for every team looking for or considering getting a new head coach. And UND will be NO BETTER OFF than before.

      Haters gotta hate because that’s all they know how to do. They’re not fans. They’re just losers who have no ability to socialize about a sporting event or team other than hating on them.

  13. The boys need to find a way to get the job done and reward the best fan support, by far, in the country. No other team in the country can come close to the support these guys get.

    • Who cares about the fan base? Do it for themselves!!! They bust their ass all season and they deserve.a shot to hang No. 8.

  14. Really disappointed in Schmaltz, I have to wonder if he was hurt. He stopped skating at the beginning of the 2nd period and really hurt the team. His lazy icing led to goal 2. Saw a puck in the corner in the defensive end that he slowly skated to that almost caused another turnover.

  15. Seeing the anguish of the UND fans is what gives this time of year more meaning. Though there is no perfect system, the PWR is at least an objective measurement and removes any semblance of politics from the equation of determining the NCAA field.

    Having said that, I hate to think that a team like UND that finishes the regular season in second place by one point may not make the NCAA. For that team, the conference tourney can be a nightmare and mean that a lower placed team can bump them out. A team like Miami, however, loves the conference tournament, as it gives them new life. So, again, there’s no perfect system.

    When the NCHC was established, there were dire predictions that its teams would beat each other up to the point that one or two very worthy teams wouldn’t make the NCAA. Well, after one season, those predictions may come to fruition.

  16. Saw this coming before the season started. Lost (almost) our complete offensive capability from last year. New year, new team. New line combinations, new defensive pairings, primarily young team.
    I am willing to accept this year as the “almost” year. Next season however,
    there should be no slow start, no collapse at year end, as experience will abound on this team. All that being said, I still bleed green, and my heart feels like it’s been stomped on when we lose. I will be watching today, cheering them on, and hoping against hope that UND can become the
    “Hot team” no one wants to play. Hope springs eternal!!

    • Not unusual for D I hockey, which has become little more than an uncompensated minor league for the NHL. Many teams have to refit as players leave before their senior year. A freshman at St. Lawrence has just bolted for the Blackhawks.

  17. At the risk of sounding a bit cynical, is it out of line to expect your team to be prepared for the post season? I certainly hope not! But it appears that have grown to accept the “business” of hockey. The coaches win the home games, fill the arena, and create job security. Who’s going it argue with a coach that sells enough tickets to keep the $$$ rolling in? If that is what success looks like, we are very successful! If it’s winning a national championship, well not so much! Perhaps my expectations are out of line, but I lay the responsibility of getting the team prepared for the one and done format of the post season at the feet of the coaching staff. Ours has been predictable, start slow – finish the regular season strong, then play below expectations in the post season. If we are never going to change coaches, perhaps we need a new sports psychologist to get the team ready for the tournaments!

    • The knock on Hakstol is that he habitually gets outcoached in the tournament. Other coaches know his style of play and they neutralize it. The Miami coach wouldn’t admit it, but after four previous games, he came up with the solution to win. I don’t believe the UND fans will have the same patience UNH has had with Umile.

      • That’s an EXTREMELY retarded comment. Its tough to beat ANY team four times in a row (much less uber-talented/coached Miami). You think Blasi went into the locker room, drew a bunch of X’s & O’s on the chalkboard, and “voila”?? Nothing more than the odds catching up to a team at the worst time of the year. I’ll give you kudos though; at least you didnt try and blame the loss on Gothberg (like the hockey mental midgets on the live chat last night)…… :-)

        • Viking1, I find that your comment is offensive to retards. I’ve heard retards make smarter comments than Gene did.

          I doubt Gene is an idiot. I just don’t think that he parsed his comment correctly. Perhaps editting the comment to say:

          “Haters who know nothing knock on Hakstol for being habitually…etc.”

          The truth of the matter is this: In a 1 game series, the team that plays better than the other team usually wins. History, perceived talent level, fan entitlement, etc. makes NO DIFFERENCE AT ALL. If it did, as mentioned above, Mercer would have been destroyed 156 to 10 by Duke. Minnesota would be beating everyone in hockey by no less than 10 goals, and the Miami Heat would win NBA championships in sweep fashion from now until Lebron retires or leaves the team. Oh yeah, and the Montreal Canadiens and NY Yankees would be dynasties still.

          Asinine.

          • Triple blah: I dont know anything about Gene, even LESS about basketball, and dont care to find out about either. Having played D1 college hockey though, I DO know the Sioux are a top-20 team each and every year in an environment that’s more competitive each and every year. That’s a major accomplishment for ANY program, end of story. Now, lets go root for the Sioux to make the show…. :-)

          • Usual homer ad hominems. Fact his, he hasn’t won the big one, which is something you can’t dispute.

          • Neither have Blasi @ Miami, Benett @ Union, Pecknold @ Quinipiac, Motzko @ St Cloud, Bazin @ Lowell, and on & on & on & on. “Fire them all”, says Gene-Gene the dancin machine…. :-)

  18. Well UND screwed themselves over with the lackluster play on Friday.. They did the same thing they Have always done all year.. Turn the puck over in the defensive zone and that leads to goals
    They took stupid penalties and just couldn’t convert on the power play…. Hakstol didn’t adjust to the play of Miami and it ultimately cost the game

  19. I completely agree with Sioux1….All this talk about being unprepared, lazy, quitters, fire Hak, etc, is completely ridiculous. UND controlled long stretches of the game but couldn’t execute when they had chances. It would have been a completely different game had Parks been able to find the open net on the power play early in game or if Mark Mac would have hit the open net on the 3 on 2 that would have tied the game or if Rocco buries his chance when he was left all alone if front of Miami net.
    Also, there was a reason the Miami team was a preseason #1 (not just in nchc but in the NCAA!!)–they have a very good team. They have underachieved for most of the year and when UND swept them in February, their goaltending was in shambles and they were missing Coleman (that would be like last years Sioux team missing Kristo). The better TEAM won last night–not because UND wasn’t prepared, or they dont care, or they quit….Miami won because they executed on their chances and UND did not.
    I am still a proud Sioux fan and will be rooting for them today–Wisco and Umass-Lowell too :) !!!

    • Drinking that same old Koolaid year after will get tiring at some point! So, if we expected Miami to be loaded for bear this time do we make excuses for, you can’t win them all, might as well toss in the towel as it’s their turn or do you prepare your team for what they may not be expecting? Don’t get me wrong if winning the home games and selling tickets is all we are concerned about , we are in good hands! Forgive me, but this is like that movie when we wake up every day and it’s the same old same old! Ok off the soap box, we will win today! I would bet on it!

      • Yes, it is Haks fault that Parks and Mark Mac did not finish on wide open nets.

        Preparing them for what they may not be expecting? Maybe you shouldn’t expect an undefeated season/Nat’l Championship every year.

    • and I agree with SiouxFan7, this was an awesome game to watch (it was played at an incredible pace) and if UND capitalizes on its chances, this game goes down to the wire. I can understand being disappointed in the results, but only a fool would be disappointed in the performance these two COLLEGE hockey team put on.

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